Urban research / development horizons
Develop spaces that make people want to live and work here
The first priority is an attractive housing and work offer for people considering a move to Wittenberg. MGA examines spatial quality, everyday needs and viable operation together. A small trial within six months provides the basis for the next decision.
Evidence and assumption
A smaller population, different needs?
The official projection ends in 2040. A separate calculation shows how sensitive a 2050 figure is to one annual-rate assumption.
One transparent assumption
The starting assumption of −0.7% is chosen by MGA. It is not an official extension and is not an estimated effect of a scenario.
2050 = 39 845 × (1 + r / 100)10
The calculation above shows the starting assumption. Enable JavaScript to vary the annual rate.
| Year | Residents | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 2040 | 39,845 | Official municipal projection |
| 2050 | 37,142 | MGA assumption: −0.7% per year after 2040 |
Official starting point: 45,126 residents in 2023, an observed figure; 39,845 projected for 2040. Both refer to the whole municipality, not individual research districts.
8th Regionalised Population Projection, p. 42 (PDF p. 44, German)Age groups in the official 2040 projection
- Under 20
- 5,944
- 20 to 66
- 19,986
- 67 and over
- 13,915
This source uses 67 as the age threshold. These groups cannot be compared directly with charts using a 65-and-over category.
MGA investigation method
Make a specific offer for living and working in Wittenberg
The official 2040 projection is 11.7% below the observed 2023 population. With other conditions unchanged, fewer residents mean a smaller local customer base. Incomes, visitors, commuters and shopping destinations also matter. The investigation therefore considers the whole city and its regional connections.
The design task is to turn suitable buildings into distinctive homes, usable workspaces and shared places. Daylight, accessible entrances, quiet work and nearby everyday services are considered alongside the financial comparison. The proposal must benefit its users and fit the surrounding neighbourhood.
Compare actual homes, household costs and building operation in the place lab
Three design approaches
Choose a concrete starting point
Culture and everyday amenities can complement a housing and work offer. Each proposal is compared with today’s situation; the population calculation remains separate.
Which offer would make moving to Wittenberg attractive?
The offer should make a move easier and support lasting use. Distinctive, accessible spaces should improve everyday life and also benefit the surrounding neighbourhood.
- Develop the offer
- Develop a proposal for a verified building with a suitable home, a usable workspace and shared amenities. Compare it with the current situation and an actual alternative in a reference city.
- Check everyday benefit and costs
- Compare each home’s own floor area, household budget, travel time and building operating costs. Test light, usability and access with prospective users. Record enquiries, actual use and feedback during a small trial.
- Confirm delivery and operation
- An available building, agreed use, permissions, reliable internet, regional connections and an operator. Set the budget and evidence required to continue before starting the trial.
The next decisionAfter six months: continue if demand, spatial quality and viable operation are demonstrated; otherwise adjust the offer or end the trial.
Could an unused historic place become part of everyday city life?
Vacant historic spaces can offer room for culture, making, learning and work. A specific proposal must follow from the surveyed fabric and confirmed needs.
- Develop the offer
- Compare reversible trial uses, entrances and shared spaces. Develop light, materials and the relationship with the surrounding neighbourhood from a surveyed building.
- Check everyday benefit and costs
- Record use at comparable times, repeat visits, public access hours and feedback from residents and users. Check operating costs against an actual operating plan.
- Confirm delivery and operation
- Verified building condition, permissions, an operator, accessible routes and evidenced demand. Culture, jobs or financial viability are not presumed outcomes.
The next decisionWhich space and use should be tested before a lasting conversion?
Which local offer would make everyday life easier?
Places of care, education, supply and meeting are considered together with the routes that connect them. A well-connected street alone does not guarantee an accessible offer.
- Develop the offer
- Verify destinations, entrances and opening hours. Compare a confirmed connection or a changed use with the existing situation.
- Check everyday benefit and costs
- Compare modelled route lengths and the number of confirmed destinations reachable within a stated walking-time assumption. A two-kilometre circle is not a walking catchment. Check barriers and actual use on site.
- Confirm delivery and operation
- Updated destination data, verified access, an explicit walking model and local feedback. Terrain and barriers require their own reliable evidence.
The next decisionWhich missing destination or access improvement is worth investigating?
From a proposal to a practical decision
Develop, trial and decide within six months
MGA proposes this programme from the start of an agreed investigation. It leads to a small, permitted trial with a defined budget, responsibilities and assessment criteria. A lasting conversion follows a separate design and approval process. The 2040 and 2050 population horizons provide the long-term context.
- Month 1
Document the current situation and confirm the needs of prospective users and neighbours. Choose an available place and agree the purpose of the trial.
- Months 2–3
Develop the offer. Compare actual alternatives, household costs and operation. Confirm the budget, permissions, responsibilities and criteria for success.
- Months 4–6
Run a small, permitted trial in everyday conditions. Record actual use, spatial quality, access and costs against the agreed baseline.
- After 6 months
Decide on continuation, adjustment or closure. Set out the next design and operating steps with those responsible, using the trial evidence.
The result is a documented decision: continue, adjust or end the trial. Demand, spatial quality and viable operation must support it. The next step states what should be designed, who takes responsibility and which budget is available.
Dates matter
What is known, and what still needs checking?
- 2001
- The urban development concept already compared three development scenarios up to 2010. These were historical assumptions, not current population or demand figures. Source: STEK 2001, table 3.11, p. 58.
- 2017
- The ISEK records 374 vacant homes out of 1,568 in the Altstadt, around 24%. This is a dated historical baseline, not a current vacancy rate. End report, p. 52 (PDF p. 58)
- 2020–2025
- Recent official population figures provide the observed municipal series. A change of census basis from 2022 limits direct comparisons across that boundary. View city figures